Fortune Box Research Part 2 (to 100 items) ... No significant change

[SawzAll]

BLUF: We ran the fortune box research out to 120 boxes from the previous 40 (see previous study) and found that chance of rare is 63.0%, common 5.3%, Legendary 3.7%, and Epic 28.0%.  The difference in calculated legendary rate increased 0.3%, meaning there was no significant (i.e. 5% being the cut-off) difference from the last study.  (Ignore the 60.5)

LONG STORY: 

First, thanks to everyone who helped me out: @dirtycarot @epicspeedster@Fordekash Zbey Kse, @ZeRo_ @Sleckmo @diego brando  @GGoT

     So I ran this study out to 120 (was aiming for 100) because people didn't believe me when I said there was no significant difference between 40 and 100+.  So here you go: here's proof there's no significant difference.  If you really base your arena shop upgrades on whether the legendary rate is 3.3% vs 3.7% then you might need to seek professional help   

     I tried to make the colors in the chart match the game's color coding, but I was not able to edit them individually (gotta love Excel).  If you want to pay me to buy a student copy of IBM SPSS, so that the colors match, please let me know.

     The findings remain the same: for most people, it will not be advantageous to upgrade your fortune box rate in the arena shop if you want more legendaries: not until you upgrade the other important things like damage, capacities, hit points, resistance, backfire reduction, etc.

     However, I will also say that while the fortune box might as well be called the "Blue Box" because of rares being the majority (63%), I will say that this is at least reasonably generous of the game to give you legendaries.  And in this data, one of our members got a Bright Roar.  Another got an Energy Monkey torso.  I got an MPV from a fortune box once (but not while this study was going on).

     There are some limitations to this study, though, as always:

• It appears the game bases your rates off of the code but using a RNG call to your host machine.  Therefore, if you happen to somehow be on a computer that has a broken RNG, you could get potentially higher rates or lower rates than these.
• To help you understand the measure of significance: it's mostly agreed upon by Statisticians that 1% is the level of significance required for difference to be important, but only if you are doing things within the hard sciences.  For example, if we were manufacturing gun barrels and machine A's differences in finished product width was a 1% spread versus machine B was a 0.1% spread, this would be cause for concern because we might accidentally manufacture barrels that are out of specifications and thus cause accuracy problems on machine A, but machine B would be better for our needs.  For things that use probability and normal curves (human behavior experiments, things based in chance), the measure is 5%.  So if there had been a 5% difference between study A and study B, we would conclude that 40 is not enough data points.  However, what we see is 0.3%, which is less than both a strict hard-science 1% margin and a more soft-science psychology and probability 5%.  Therefore our data is very reliable.
• More data points will only make the rates more accurate, but should not (as we have demonstrated) change your conclusions.
• There appears to be no difference in who was providing the screenshots in terms of player rank.  There also seemed to be no difference in whether the fortune box was from the shop or from farming the campaigns.  Thus I believe it is safe to conclude that these stats apply to all fortune boxes.  But if you have a good reason to believe shop versus campaign is different, please let me know.
• Keep in mind some times when you complete parts of the campaign, the fortune box animation is given, even though normally the resulting rewards are fixed.  It is unclear yet if there are times when completing the campaign will result in a higher drop rate for special circumstances.  However, we were not calculating fortune boxes for special circumstances (because that would take way too long).
• The rates are PER ITEM IN THE BOX, not the entire box.  This is because the items in the box are not always identical.  You can sometimes get a box result (as we have shown in the pictures, which is available upon request) where you get one epic and one common.  It just happens.  Because fortune boxes seem to be "per item" chances, but seem to light up the light on the animation based on the highest rarity of item you receive (i.e. lights "legendary" when you get only one legendary, etc.), I thought this would be a more logical and simple way to run the numbers.  Your mileage may vary.

By the way, as soon as I finished, my alt got this in a fortune box

Edited June 25, 2021 by SawzAll (see edit history)

[Andypandy]

wow ur awesome. Also take note of this that daily fortuneboxes have a different droprate pattern than regular ones. i usually get legendaries from them every 3 free fortune box in the shop. So 1/3 procent chance in getting a legendary from them. for me at least.

[AftoKrator]

i honestly can't remember the last time i got a legendary from any free fortune box, so it's probably a much lower chance for most other people

[Predator]

Beautiful work and presentation. However, I think one of the most important questions to ask is:
'What is the drop-rate chance of fortune boxes from mission, in particular boss missions?'

[SawzAll]

3 hours ago, Andypandy said:

wow ur awesome. Also take note of this that daily fortuneboxes have a different droprate pattern than regular ones

Doesn't seem to match the data my clan pulled.

2 hours ago, AftoKrator said:

i honestly can't remember the last time i got a legendary from any free fortune box, so it's probably a much lower chance for most other people

actually, how it works is that sometimes we get unlucky.  It's the chance as a whole that this measures. 

3 minutes ago, Marethryu said:

Beautiful work and presentation. However, I think one of the most important questions to ask is:
'What is the drop-rate chance of fortune boxes from mission, in particular boss missions?'

I don't think there is a difference.  But the problem here is that to fully test this would require 40 FB results from every campaign and mission that gives fortune boxes.  So that's like at least 12 x 40 = 480 data points.  I really don't feel like testing that.

[Predator]

I mean, if I did Overlord's Den Hard mode, what is the the chance of receiving a fortune box, regardless if I were to receive a rare item or a legendary one?

[Dark conon mech]

What's the chance of getting a double legendary in fortune box

[SawzAll]

I think the chance of double legendary would be calculated by multiplying legendary chance by legendary chance.  Should be about .09% or 1 in 1000.

[Stelight]

Insteresting topic now i understood why was there still this :

I never happened on the common but i understand now : is only if you get 2 commons that to say 0.025% to fall on it and i thank you that it is to you or to ttphe people who helped you .

[Stelight]

28 minutes ago, Deimos said:

This clown again? Who will tell them that 120 boxes is way too small of a sample size to get any reliable data? I know for a fact common roll has a lower chance of happening than legendary.

With all due respect taken in account to have not even 10 fortunes box is not easy so imagined 120 ? it must have a crazy work, please don't denigrate their work .

[Deimos]

1 minute ago, Electro said:

With all due respect taken in account to have not even 10 fortunes box is not easy so imagined 120 ? it must have a crazy work, please don't denigrate their work .

This was multiple people pooling in their drop data and no, they're once again spreading misinformation about things they don't know anything about.

[Stelight]

7 minutes ago, Deimos said:

This was multiple people pooling in their drop data and no, they're once again spreading misinformation about things they don't know anything about.

Can you at least say why you think that ? A bunch of words is useless without anything and also why they will do that ? It wouldn't do them anyway any good if it were true .

Edited January 26, 2022 by Electro (see edit history)

[Deimos]

3 minutes ago, Electro said:

Can you at least say why you think that ? A bunch of words is useless without anything and also why they will do that ? It wouldn't do them anyway any good if it were true .

It's the same person that made the "META" builds thread that was completely wrong. This isn't any more reliable.

[Stelight]

27 minutes ago, Deimos said:

It's the same person that made the "META" builds thread that was completely wrong. This isn't any more reliable.

So according to a person not part of world rank 10 said that absolutely all the builds are tottaly fake made by the union of the build from the top mech builders and therefore you now contradict everything said the messenger of the post ? You can think as you want but then left this topic .

Edited January 26, 2022 by Electro (see edit history)

[Stelight]

42 minutes ago, Deimos said:

What are you talking about kid? I can barely extrapolate anything from that broken mess. Many top tier players voiced their disagreement with their terrible thread and a new, much better one was made in its place. Just a word of advice, stop speaking on matters you have no knowledge on, you're starting to sound like that clown 

oh very well you insulte me ? In this case i just to have to call a moderator then.

I seems to have disrupted the discussion but then i leave . ( just for i can rest )

@Alexander Sorry to disturb you but we have a "conflicts" and turn out he's not really respesctful. I may have to be responsible i apologize for that .

Edited January 26, 2022 by Electro (see edit history)

[Deimos]

3 hours ago, Electro said:

oh very well you insulte me ? In this case i just to have to call a moderator then.

I seems to have disrupted the discussion but then i leave . ( just for i can rest )

@Alexander Sorry to disturb you but we have a "conflicts" and turn out he's not really respesctful. I may have to be responsible i apologize for that .

Alexander is a dev, he does not care about forum issues. I guess it really is true that if you want something done you need to do it yourself because everyone else is utterly incompetent.

[Clan Red]

Hello,

Other topic please read
adds generator for tokens at shop is offline for more th@n 4 weeks now.

Also notice campaign 1vs1 at mission 8 reward fortune box  would get at least 5 + legendary  every week after many try’s .

NOW  drop rate fortune box for one month is at O % for legendary reward.

Yes Rate is ZERO %….,you can add that…..fixings all .

No one is  talking  about that in forum ???

Also lost my first account with FLASH ,glad did not spend any Money .

Never responded to my request reboot my account ,anyway

 

 

[Stelight]

3 hours ago, Clan Red said:

Also notice campaign 1vs1 at mission 8 reward fortune box  would get at least 5 + legendary  every week after many try’s .

The rate is very high to just use fuel .

3 hours ago, Clan Red said:

NOW  drop rate fortune box for one month is at O % for legendary reward.

Yes Rate is ZERO %….,you can add that…..fixings all .

No one is  talking  about that in forum ???

What do you mean by that ? I'd had 9 legendary of which 6 premium items with fortune box .

[Clan Red]

Hi, 

Now at the Mission 8  city 🏙 Drop rate % for legendary items at the campaign one on one Radom fortune box.

It was a hot spot for Radom fortune box at the city mission 8 if you repeated farming at that hot spot you would get many fortune boxes over 25 box per week and more is was a easy way of getting legendary items.

do you copy !!!

Edited January 27, 2022 by Clan Red (see edit history)

[SawzAll]

On 1/26/2022 at 1:27 PM, Deimos said:

This clown again? Who will tell them that 120 boxes is way too small of a sample size to get any reliable data? I know for a fact common roll has a lower chance of happening than legendary.

I'll try to make this simple enough for you to understand:

1. You're necroposting/necro-replying, so I reported this, along with your toxicity.
2. I proved that 40 was enough.  I am trained at the masters degree level on how to conduct proper research.   I proved everyone wrong the last time and this time.  Notice that the percentage of change in results was well within scientific accuracy levels that demand 5% (at least).  Please refrain from replying on things you don't have formal training on and/or do not understand.
3. You don't know anything for a fact when it comes to this specific topic because you have not posted your own research.  That's why I conducted research: I wanted to know the drop rates.  But I used several people to research it together because just using my own luck would make this research ineffective.  Again, proper research methods.
4. You just got done being owned on the META topic because you don't know what you're talking about.  Please change your methods and habits so that you stop putting your foot in your mouth.

I'll go back to ignoring you. 

But  to the moderators, I ask: please change how it works so that when I block someone, it doesn't show that they even exist or reply to topics.

Because it's this type of behavior that makes me reluctant to even come on here due to the high levels of toxicity and the low signal-to-noise ratio.

Edited January 29, 2022 by SawzAll (see edit history)

[Deimos]

23 hours ago, SawzAll said:

I'll try to make this simple enough for you to understand:

1. You're necroposting/necro-replying, so I reported this, along with your toxicity.
2. I proved that 40 was enough.  I am trained at the masters degree level on how to conduct proper research.   I proved everyone wrong the last time and this time.  Notice that the percentage of change in results was well within scientific accuracy levels that demand 5% (at least).  Please refrain from replying on things you don't have formal training on and/or do not understand.
3. You don't know anything for a fact when it comes to this specific topic because you have not posted your own research.  That's why I conducted research: I wanted to know the drop rates.  But I used several people to research it together because just using my own luck would make this research ineffective.  Again, proper research methods.
4. You just got done being owned on the META topic because you don't know what you're talking about.  Please change your methods and habits so that you stop putting your foot in your mouth.

I'll go back to ignoring you. 

But  to the moderators, I ask: please change how it works so that when I block someone, it doesn't show that they even exist or reply to topics.

Because it's this type of behavior that makes me reluctant to even come on here due to the high levels of toxicity and the low signal-to-noise ratio.

"Someone disagreeing with me is toxicity" snowflake moment lmao

[W.H.I.T.E.O.U.T]

I guess I finally have a visual to associate my luck with fortune boxes to when I'm going through those periods of time where fortune boxes only seem to acknowledge the existence of their blue light and forget the other three. 

Thanks. 

[Corvus]

13 hours ago, W.H.I.T.E.O.U.T said:

I guess I finally have a visual to associate my luck with fortune boxes to when I'm going through those periods of time where fortune boxes only seem to acknowledge the existence of their blue light and forget the other three. 

Thanks. 

Lol same I always get rares, sometimes I get an epic, I only got a legendary once out of all the ones I opened

[SawzAll]

18 hours ago, W.H.I.T.E.O.U.T said:

I guess I finally have a visual to associate my luck with fortune boxes to when I'm going through those periods of time where fortune boxes only seem to acknowledge the existence of their blue light and forget the other three. 

Thanks. 

No worries.  It was me and several other people who ran this, so that we could make sure it wasn't just my own RNG that was being studied.  That way hopefully we can get a baseline average.

The only more scientific way to do this would be to run 1,200 fortune boxes or to have the code to the SM game so that you know the rate.