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Fortune Box Research Complete!


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BLUF: Me and my clan are done researching fortune box rates.  It seems fortune boxes have a 66% chance of getting a rare item (per item in the box) and on average you get two items.  Chance of common: 8%, Legendary 3%, epic 23%.

LONG STORY: My clan and I ran fortune boxes and took screenshots to see if we could deduce the rates of fortune boxes.  Keep in mind, the majority of these came from farming 1v1 Campaign Big Boy for fortune boxes.



     We ran a total of 42 boxes.  I only accepted screenshots as part of the data collection.  In statistics, 40 is the bare minimum data points you need in order to draw conclusions, so I went with what we had (42) when we went over 40.  If someone wants to run another test like this, be my guest: we can combine the data.  (But don't just screenshot fortune boxes and reply here: run your own study please.)

     There are a few minor limitations to this study:

  1. It is possible that campaign versus shop fortune boxes have different rates, but we don't have any evidence of this yet.  We'd need 40 data points of shop fortune boxes and 40 data points of campaign fortune boxes to be able to run another test on their rates to see if they're significantly different.
  2. It is possible the game has hidden mechanisms that change the rates based on the difficulty of the campaign level and/or your campaign level.  I have no evidence that this is true, but I don't have enough data points to know if it's false either.
  3. Forty data points is a start, but if we have 100 we can post possibly more trustworthy stats.
  4. We did not take into account whether the items you get from the fortune box are worth having or not, and we only saw one premium item (a monkey torso) this time.  Whether an item is useful or not is subjective to the person, so we didn't try to test that out.

     Please, if you have any questions, contact me.  I did not attach all the screenshots of fortune boxes here, but they are available upon request.

By the way, I plan on continuing this to get to 100 fortune boxes.  Me and my clan will do it.  Please don't reply to this thread to post screenshots.

Edited by SawzAll (see edit history)

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."


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