Jump to content

Coddiwomple

Experienced Pilots
  • Posts

    220
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to SawzAll in Fortune Box Research Part 2 (to 100 items) ... No significant change   
    BLUF: We ran the fortune box research out to 120 boxes from the previous 40 (see previous study) and found that chance of rare is 63.0%, common 5.3%, Legendary 3.7%, and Epic 28.0%.  The difference in calculated legendary rate increased 0.3%, meaning there was no significant (i.e. 5% being the cut-off) difference from the last study.  (Ignore the 60.5)

    LONG STORY: 
    First, thanks to everyone who helped me out: @dirtycarot @epicspeedster@Fordekash Zbey Kse, @ZeRo_ @Sleckmo @diego brando  @GGoT
         So I ran this study out to 120 (was aiming for 100) because people didn't believe me when I said there was no significant difference between 40 and 100+.  So here you go: here's proof there's no significant difference.  If you really base your arena shop upgrades on whether the legendary rate is 3.3% vs 3.7% then you might need to seek professional help 😄 😛 
         I tried to make the colors in the chart match the game's color coding, but I was not able to edit them individually (gotta love Excel).  If you want to pay me to buy a student copy of IBM SPSS, so that the colors match, please let me know.
         The findings remain the same: for most people, it will not be advantageous to upgrade your fortune box rate in the arena shop if you want more legendaries: not until you upgrade the other important things like damage, capacities, hit points, resistance, backfire reduction, etc.
         However, I will also say that while the fortune box might as well be called the "Blue Box" because of rares being the majority (63%), I will say that this is at least reasonably generous of the game to give you legendaries.  And in this data, one of our members got a Bright Roar.  Another got an Energy Monkey torso.  I got an MPV from a fortune box once (but not while this study was going on).
         There are some limitations to this study, though, as always:
    It appears the game bases your rates off of the code but using a RNG call to your host machine.  Therefore, if you happen to somehow be on a computer that has a broken RNG, you could get potentially higher rates or lower rates than these. To help you understand the measure of significance: it's mostly agreed upon by Statisticians that 1% is the level of significance required for difference to be important, but only if you are doing things within the hard sciences.  For example, if we were manufacturing gun barrels and machine A's differences in finished product width was a 1% spread versus machine B was a 0.1% spread, this would be cause for concern because we might accidentally manufacture barrels that are out of specifications and thus cause accuracy problems on machine A, but machine B would be better for our needs.  For things that use probability and normal curves (human behavior experiments, things based in chance), the measure is 5%.  So if there had been a 5% difference between study A and study B, we would conclude that 40 is not enough data points.  However, what we see is 0.3%, which is less than both a strict hard-science 1% margin and a more soft-science psychology and probability 5%.  Therefore our data is very reliable. More data points will only make the rates more accurate, but should not (as we have demonstrated) change your conclusions. There appears to be no difference in who was providing the screenshots in terms of player rank.  There also seemed to be no difference in whether the fortune box was from the shop or from farming the campaigns.  Thus I believe it is safe to conclude that these stats apply to all fortune boxes.  But if you have a good reason to believe shop versus campaign is different, please let me know. Keep in mind some times when you complete parts of the campaign, the fortune box animation is given, even though normally the resulting rewards are fixed.  It is unclear yet if there are times when completing the campaign will result in a higher drop rate for special circumstances.  However, we were not calculating fortune boxes for special circumstances (because that would take way too long). The rates are PER ITEM IN THE BOX, not the entire box.  This is because the items in the box are not always identical.  You can sometimes get a box result (as we have shown in the pictures, which is available upon request) where you get one epic and one common.  It just happens.  Because fortune boxes seem to be "per item" chances, but seem to light up the light on the animation based on the highest rarity of item you receive (i.e. lights "legendary" when you get only one legendary, etc.), I thought this would be a more logical and simple way to run the numbers.  Your mileage may vary. By the way, as soon as I finished, my alt got this in a fortune box

  2. Like
    Coddiwomple got a reaction from Marija in Boring daily challenges. Dull, predictable game!   
    Constantly adding new items to the game only provides an artifice of novelty, and, as pointed out by posters above, waters down drop rates.
    Shaking up the top meta would be much easier to do with a balance update rather than the introduction of a host of (potentially useless) new items. A lot can change if a few items are balanced to be viable in top rank builds.
  3. Like
    Coddiwomple got a reaction from Raul in Boring daily challenges. Dull, predictable game!   
    Constantly adding new items to the game only provides an artifice of novelty, and, as pointed out by posters above, waters down drop rates.
    Shaking up the top meta would be much easier to do with a balance update rather than the introduction of a host of (potentially useless) new items. A lot can change if a few items are balanced to be viable in top rank builds.
  4. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to khan in Boring daily challenges. Dull, predictable game!   
    Considering that the sole person actively working on SuperMechs at this given time is Alexander, he's doing great.
    As for the "dull" rewards and "meta" mechs:
    The rewards for quests/portals have gone up, we now have 100%/200%/300% Arena gold as well.
    The meta part is up to you, honestly, nobody is forcing you to run a META mech, take @Lord Gorgon, for example, he's always tinkering mechs out of the meta, and several people are copying them notbecause they're good per say, but they're fun.
    Conclusion: give the game some time, nothing is instant.
  5. Confused
    Coddiwomple reacted to Scourge in Boring daily challenges. Dull, predictable game!   
    That's BS. They can still make more effort now! 
    I have no faith that they will make any significant improvements either based on their consistent poor programming and game management! 
  6. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Raul in Again about Raid   
    Correct.
    And since this topic it's being used to post about players cheating, I'll have to stop it.
    We do not allow witch-hunts, and we all know there are many cheaters out there, Gato can either spend hours analyzing hundreds of reports, or invest that time on working on the root of the problem. Ban waves still happen anyway, from time to time.
    If you suspect or know someone is cheating, use the report form at: 
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdpTi7ARgV-5ncdfXi2QzEOUXGlSM-1XN6IrMqyjknFyk0yxA/viewform
     
  7. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Eevee in How do I make a topic   
    Now the question is "What?"
    What has this thread become?
    What will happen to your brain if you read it?
  8. Like
    Coddiwomple got a reaction from bestplayeroftheworld in How do I make a topic   
    How has this topic not been moved to Spam yet?
  9. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Fordekash in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    first time R2! 
  10. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Dark conon mech in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    2 in 1 MEGA NOICE!!!

  11. Haha
    Coddiwomple reacted to OKI DOKI in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    I think we are doing great.

  12. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Sparks in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    Finally... I maxed base.
  13. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to epicspeedster in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    40 mi gold 😋

    I could completly max all three of my mechs if I wanted, but making rares into epics into myth food would be super boring
    Arena box

    Funny thing is I have this item on my 2 other accounts, highly coincidental. Same thing with a few L-Ms on my main and alt. Its strange

  14. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Spam in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
  15. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Darkweaver in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    I need many relics 🙂


  16. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Alexander in Honest players disadvantage   
    Would the players prefer the full removal over adding them to boxes or portals?
  17. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to khan in Honest players disadvantage   
    I think the answer is pretty obvious.
    Why beat the enemy when you can join them?
  18. Like
    Coddiwomple got a reaction from Alex2040bR in Honest players disadvantage   
    The best approach imo is to simply make these items obsolete, either by introducing new items or retroactively nerfing them (like the 1 kg teleport nerf). I personally favor the former.
    The main problem with legacy items in reloaded is how they can provide niche utilities, most notably the repulsers (e.g. Bully, etc.) and lightweight legs (e.g. Surfboard, Rolin, etc.) that other items can’t provide.
  19. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Bunboy in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
  20. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to ISayMeow in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
  21. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to epicspeedster in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    Fbs popping off

    more stuff maxed

  22. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to khan in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    1 Pack gambling = Success

  23. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to Pizza4UAndMe in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    Level 230 reward 😮


  24. Sad
    Coddiwomple reacted to Xynt in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    Where my relic?
  25. Like
    Coddiwomple reacted to khan in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -   
    Cool

×
×
  • Create New...