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It's March , where those prenium packs percentage gimmicks explanations at


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Casual reminder for @Alexander to finally explain how the Prenium Packs drop rate works and why it's such a taboo to show out the drop rates from boxes like golden boxes from Legacy , it's already March 2021 .

 

You can cure yourselves, all you need to escape the plague was to never embracing it to begin with, you are given that choice each time, i am not your cure to salvation, my wonderful relic of Mortal Pride, for you are your own infection, the helpless look on your faces is my favorite part for i have enjoyed it a thousand times already. - Herald Of The Ravens.
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On 3/6/2021 at 5:19 PM, SawzAll said:

But the point was this person was basically krapping on Alex in discord.  First, I don't think Alex owes us drop rates.  But second, even if not, the overall complaint from this user was that Alex doesn't keep his promises, and so I provided evidence (that deal) that Alex does.  So please forgive the drama, and if you want, you can delete this reply if you want (admins).

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The drop rates r shit anyway i always get epic from packs so annoying and rares from fb they not showing us drop rates cayse they made the good stuff hard as shit to get

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2 hours ago, Misty tiger said:

The drop rates r shit anyway i always get epic from packs so annoying and rares from fb they not showing us drop rates cayse they made the good stuff hard as shit to get

That's one possible conclusion.  Another conclusion is that you had bad luck.  Also, with all due respect, saying "always" is not logical because I'm sure you've gotten a legendary from a premium pack at least once in your entire SM game history.  CleverName and others who have gotten large amounts of premium packs have said it's roughly 1 in 5 (so on average you get one legendary in every premium pack).

I wonder, do you know how to build your own legendaries?

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

http://www.puresimplicity.net/~oneeyedcat/misc/supermechs.html

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1 hour ago, Junky said:

By @CleverName logic I should of got at least 5 legys from this deal! I didn't I only got 4..... 11 boxes of purple shet.... And only 1 legy in each box.... The most I've ever got in 1 box was 2 legys in over 8 years playing on/off!

 

Definitely not right!!! 

dude relax

i get 10 legendary from this offer but you know what?

5 massive shocker feet and 4 stupid rolling beast

i get 9 useless legendary leg😶

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40 minutes ago, The Nun said:

dude relax

i get 10 legendary from this offer but you know what?

5 massive shocker feet and 4 stupid rolling beast

i get 9 useless legendary leg😶

I'd take 10 legendary including 9 useless over 4 useless.... What are you talking about? 😂

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1 hour ago, SawzAll said:

With all due respect, that's not how statistics work.  CleverName has opened so many boxes that his opinion is probably very accurate.

But even if we knew the drop rate, i.e. Legendary rate is 20%, because it's random, there's always a chance you could "roll high" and get more than 20%, or "roll low" and get less than 20%.

With all due respect, your logic isn't accurate.

So the question has been answered (see other posts).  25%.

This means probably that (using QBASIC) the logic is IF RND(0)>0.75 THEN LEGENDARY=1 etc.

So stop saying "well I opened a box and got no legendaries."  That's not how random chance works.

Thanks for your reply. 

I am a statatician by trade and can assure you that's exactly how it works. Without seeing overall statistical analysis of everyone in the game, I can only judge it on my 8 years experience whereby I have received less than this amount.

Also you would have to factor in that there are 5 items in each pack and how many legys were in the gold packs... As I say the maximum I have had is 2 in any 1 pack over 8 years!

It is far less than 25%. For me it's under 10%.... Down near 4/5%.

Maybe Clever is just 'luckier' than me 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Send me all the data for a year or since Gato took over and I'll happily run a proper statistical analysis for you.... Until then I'm right and the drop rates blow.... For me!!! 

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1 hour ago, Junky said:

Thanks for your reply. 

I am a statatician by trade and can assure you that's exactly how it works. Without seeing overall statistical analysis of everyone in the game, I can only judge it on my 8 years experience whereby I have received less than this amount.

Also you would have to factor in that there are 5 items in each pack and how many legys were in the gold packs... As I say the maximum I have had is 2 in any 1 pack over 8 years!

It is far less than 25%. For me it's under 10%.... Down near 4/5%.

Maybe Clever is just 'luckier' than me 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Send me all the data for a year or since Gato took over and I'll happily run a proper statistical analysis for you.... Until then I'm right and the drop rates blow.... For me!!! 

are you junkyard dog?

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22 minutes ago, The Nun said:

are you junkyard dog?

I am.... My old Steve account doesnt work. 

11 minutes ago, SawzAll said:

Forgive my scepticism: please provide your scientific analysis of 40 or more premium pack openings. 

You think a player that's played for over 8 years hadn't opened over 40 packs? 

10 or 15 packs in a row will also offer up statistics based on CN theory! 

Also not many players spend CN money so that would be using an unrealistic variable, and as I eluded to earlier he does appear to be 'luckier' than most. Or maybe I'm just unlucky.... I have often been referred to as the unluckiest player in the game. 

I have opened 30 packs at 1 time during my biggest spending and around 4/5% return on Legys was achieved! 

I could buy and open 40 packs... But that would be putting a lot money in Gatos pocket which I'm not prepared to do, but that's not for this topic. 

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27 minutes ago, Junky said:

I am.... My old Steve account doesnt work. 

You think a player that's played for over 8 years hadn't opened over 40 packs? 

10 or 15 packs in a row will also offer up statistics based on CN theory! 

Also not many players spend CN money so that would be using an unrealistic variable, and as I eluded to earlier he does appear to be 'luckier' than most. Or maybe I'm just unlucky.... I have often been referred to as the unluckiest player in the game. 

I have opened 30 packs at 1 time during my biggest spending and around 4/5% return on Legys was achieved! 

I could buy and open 40 packs... But that would be putting a lot money in Gatos pocket which I'm not prepared to do, but that's not for this topic. 

Hmm you are top player too

And you have better item than me😶

Just now, The Nun said:

Hmm you are top player too

And you have better item than me😶

I open twenty base card and get all purple

Twenty base card is equivalent to 4 premium pack dude

I'm very unlucky too😶

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1 hour ago, Junky said:

You think a player that's played for over 8 years hadn't opened over 40 packs? 

 

No, that's not my point.  But what I dispute is your memory (and really, mine too, because I am also human and could also be remembering incorrectly).

My point is that to have even a remotely valid opinion on the matter, we would need to open 40 packs at least, and compare the results.

My point is that we're human and we have a negativity bias by default.  We tend to remember the bad more than the good.  It's how the human brain is wired.

So my point isn't "you're wrong."  My point is let's prove it or disprove it.  Let's run a scientific data collection on 40+ premium pack openings and see what the data says.  We can get close to guessing the real drop rate easily if we do that.

But to be valid it would need to be 1) all of them, 2) with screenshots.

Like I said, I'm pretty sure @CleverName did this on the old forum.  (I'm only pinging him to see if he is interested in replying.)

Edited by SawzAll (see edit history)

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

http://www.puresimplicity.net/~oneeyedcat/misc/supermechs.html

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1 hour ago, Misty tiger said:

Only 40 packs in 8 years wtf i get 1 pack per week how are you playing and the more premium pack you get the better the chances i would say 33% but getting good legendaries is 12% mostly get trash legendaries 

Read it again... You have better luck than me and they aren't the % rates I've had in over 8 years! 

1 hour ago, SawzAll said:

No, that's not my point.  But what I dispute is your memory (and really, mine too, because I am also human and could also be remembering incorrectly).

My point is that to have even a remotely valid opinion on the matter, we would need to open 40 packs at least, and compare the results.

My point is that we're human and we have a negativity bias by default.  We tend to remember the bad more than the good.  It's how the human brain is wired.

So my point isn't "you're wrong."  My point is let's prove it or disprove it.  Let's run a scientific data collection on 40+ premium pack openings and see what the data says.  We can get close to guessing the real drop rate easily if we do that.

But to be valid it would need to be 1) all of them, 2) with screenshots.

Like I said, I'm pretty sure @CleverName did this on the old forum.  (I'm only pinging him to see if he is interested in replying.)

So as I've said CN is a lot 'luckier' than most players. 

You would need players with my luck and maybe a regular luck person and CN... A wide spread.... All to open 40 boxes at the same and then see the results. Then take the average across them. 1 player who is known to be close to the owners and maybe slightly privileged, possibly even given increased rates when doing these videos is not a good guide for the rest of us mere mortal players! 

You need an even spread.... We don't have that.... As such I will take my own experience and results... And as I've already eluded to I've opened 30 boxes and had 4/5% Legendary results! 

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9 hours ago, Junky said:

By @CleverName logic I should of got at least 5 legys from this deal! I didn't I only got 4..... 11 boxes of purple shet.... And only 1 legy in each box.... The most I've ever got in 1 box was 2 legys in over 8 years playing on/off!

 

Definitely not right!!! 

Expected value of 15 packs is 15 legends (1 legend per pack). There's RNG - you can get 0 legends, you can get 50 - just luck... 

34 minutes ago, Junky said:

Read it again... You have better luck than me and they aren't the % rates I've had in over 8 years! 

So as I've said CN is a lot 'luckier' than most players. 

You would need players with my luck and maybe a regular luck person and CN... A wide spread.... All to open 40 boxes at the same and then see the results. Then take the average across them. 1 player who is known to be close to the owners and maybe slightly privileged, possibly even given increased rates when doing these videos is not a good guide for the rest of us mere mortal players! 

You need an even spread.... We don't have that.... As such I will take my own experience and results... And as I've already eluded to I've opened 30 boxes and had 4/5% Legendary results! 

I'm one of most unlucky players in game by RNG. Not sure where you got that I'm lucky from. You also need to know that I've opened ~5k premium packs (25k premium boxes / ~1.6M tokens worth) or so. I can tell you that drop rates are low. ~20% chance per card for premium packs (and about ~7% of that is from L-Ms). Certain L-Ms have about 0.05% drop rate per card in premium box/pack. So unless you open 400+ packs, I don't see why you are complaining here that you're unlucky...

Edited by CleverName (see edit history)
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33 minutes ago, Junky said:

So as I've said CN is a lot 'luckier' than most players. 

You would need players with my luck and maybe a regular luck person and CN... A wide spread.... All to open 40 boxes at the same and then see the results. Then take the average across them. 1 player who is known to be close to the owners and maybe slightly privileged, possibly even given increased rates when doing these videos is not a good guide for the rest of us mere mortal players! 

You need an even spread.... We don't have that.... As such I will take my own experience and results... And as I've already eluded to I've opened 30 boxes and had 4/5% Legendary results! 

It's RNG so it might seem like CleverName is "luckier".  But I don't think this is about luck, and I'm not into luck.  I'm into science.

Please see this thread.  I've decided to undertake a scientific survey (or as close to one as possible) on premium pack openings.  You're welcome to watch it and/or participate if you wish.

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

http://www.puresimplicity.net/~oneeyedcat/misc/supermechs.html

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I doubt that Drops are different from acc to another

I saw many pack opening vids for new items, Dwaight, CN etc

They need sometimes 10 - 20 packs to get the new items 

But it's different for F2P accs 

My test: we have saved +1500 tokens on 5 accs with my brothers and a friend for the matrix day

And we got the defence matrix on all accs And 2 matrixes for my main = 6 matrixes, we opened 23 pack in totall, which means 1 new item per 4 or 5 packs (maybe all 5 accs were lucky🤨) as average for F2P accs 

So there is a programming makes bunos tokens giving a better chance for new items than supporter tokens(so they will pay more as hard as they want the new item) 

And who knows what's else programmings exists? 

Edited by TheLord (see edit history)
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1 hour ago, Junky said:

Read it again... You have better luck than me and they aren't the % rates I've had in over 8 years! 

So as I've said CN is a lot 'luckier' than most players. 

You would need players with my luck and maybe a regular luck person and CN... A wide spread.... All to open 40 boxes at the same and then see the results. Then take the average across them. 1 player who is known to be close to the owners and maybe slightly privileged, possibly even given increased rates when doing these videos is not a good guide for the rest of us mere mortal players! 

You need an even spread.... We don't have that.... As such I will take my own experience and results... And as I've already eluded to I've opened 30 boxes and had 4/5% Legendary results! 

Clever name isnt lucky he can spend over 5000 tokens but only show us the part where he gets the weapon with the power of editing now ones luck is better than others it depends on the tokens you spend to get that one weapon you want

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2 hours ago, Misty tiger said:

Clever name isnt lucky he can spend over 5000 tokens but only show us the part where he gets the weapon with the power of editing now ones luck is better than others it depends on the tokens you spend to get that one weapon you want

True.  But at the same time, he commented AGAIN on discord (like he did before on here and the old forum) saying that in his experience it's roughly 1 in 5 (20%).  Anyways, so I started a thread about it, you can participate if you want, otherwise I'm going to go wander off somewhere.

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

http://www.puresimplicity.net/~oneeyedcat/misc/supermechs.html

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7 hours ago, Junky said:

I have opened 30 packs at 1 time during my biggest spending and around 4/5% return on Legys was achieved!

Oof! With your luck, it’s like you’re cursed.

7 hours ago, Junky said:

You think a player that's played for over 8 years hadn't opened over 40 packs? 

With such bad luck, I’m surprised you clung on to this game for this long.

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The drop rates are fine !
Gato already gives us more ''free'' Tokens which equals with better drop rates .
 

" Socializing with people alters a person's character... especially when one does not have a character. "

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41 minutes ago, Junky said:

I am.... My old Steve account doesnt work. 

You think a player that's played for over 8 years hadn't opened over 40 packs? 

10 or 15 packs in a row will also offer up statistics based on CN theory! 

Also not many players spend CN money so that would be using an unrealistic variable, and as I eluded to earlier he does appear to be 'luckier' than most. Or maybe I'm just unlucky.... I have often been referred to as the unluckiest player in the game. 

I have opened 30 packs at 1 time during my biggest spending and around 4/5% return on Legys was achieved! 

I could buy and open 40 packs... But that would be putting a lot money in Gatos pocket which I'm not prepared to do, but that's not for this topic. 

Only 40 packs in 8 years wtf i get 1 pack per week how are you playing and the more premium pack you get the better the chances i would say 33% but getting good legendaries is 12% mostly get trash legendaries 

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11 minutes ago, Turtle said:

Dude you are literally ignoring the entire point of this topic and just using it as an opportunity to shit on Wind. [SNIP]

If she thinks someone is lying, she can. Because guess what? It's her opinion.

First, no, I'm not.  I'm making sure everyone is aware that Wind is out there krapping on Alex, the balance team, CleverName, and anyone who disagrees with her, so that they know where this is coming from.  I strongly doubt her desire is the good of SM if she's engaged in insulting and throwing out conspiracy theories.  For example, this morning:

image.png.e0a83172a681c8122938f2d786cd7164.png

She's still out there calling our game dog krap.  But yeah, keep claiming she's taking the "high road."

Second, you seem to be arguing very strongly on her behalf for something that should just be her opinion.

She's entitled to her opinion.  But when I confronted her about her conspiracy theories, she doubled down.  When she posted the link to her attack thread (this thread) I pointed out to her that she wasn't being completely forthcoming because it wasn't just about box rates, but about her attacking people and throwing out conspiracy theories, she dared me to post it here, so I did.

You'd think if she had a legitimate complaint, she'd go through Apple (not that this would change the desktop app or the Android app), i.e. proper channels.  And who knows, maybe she did.  Or she'd stop playing (she claims she did, but sometimes I wonder, then, why she continues to hang out on discord throwing spears at people).

Sure, you're entitled to your opinion.  She's entitled to hers.  But I just felt like everyone should know that hers is coming from a place that isn't interested in benefitting SM, just in destroying it.  But feel free to disagree with me.

7 minutes ago, Fidelio said:

wasn't their already an app from back in legacy? they showed the drop rates during legacy. also apple might just be terrible at enforcing their own rules lmao.

True, and that's why I say that.  It's possible that if Apple changed the iOS policies, older apps may have been "grandfathered in."  Still, if Wind Weaver thinks she has a legitimate complaint, let her go file a complaint on Apple iOS.  It's a free world.

What were the legacy drop rates?

Edited by SawzAll (see edit history)

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

http://www.puresimplicity.net/~oneeyedcat/misc/supermechs.html

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