so lucky !
I think I should start saving my tokens,so far for the past 2 years, everytime I get 335 tokens ,I open a premium pack.Feels like special offers are so worth it because you get so much more
This is one of my favourite weapon
BLUF: We ran the fortune box research out to 120 boxes from the previous 40 (see previous study) and found that chance of rare is 63.0%, common 5.3%, Legendary 3.7%, and Epic 28.0%. The difference in calculated legendary rate increased 0.3%, meaning there was no significant (i.e. 5% being the cut-off) difference from the last study. (Ignore the 60.5)
LONG STORY:
First, thanks to everyone who helped me out: @dirtycarot @epicspeedster@Fordekash Zbey Kse, @ZeRo_ @Sleckmo @diego brando @GGoT
So I ran this study out to 120 (was aiming for 100) because people didn't believe me when I said there was no significant difference between 40 and 100+. So here you go: here's proof there's no significant difference. If you really base your arena shop upgrades on whether the legendary rate is 3.3% vs 3.7% then you might need to seek professional help 😄 😛
I tried to make the colors in the chart match the game's color coding, but I was not able to edit them individually (gotta love Excel). If you want to pay me to buy a student copy of IBM SPSS, so that the colors match, please let me know.
The findings remain the same: for most people, it will not be advantageous to upgrade your fortune box rate in the arena shop if you want more legendaries: not until you upgrade the other important things like damage, capacities, hit points, resistance, backfire reduction, etc.
However, I will also say that while the fortune box might as well be called the "Blue Box" because of rares being the majority (63%), I will say that this is at least reasonably generous of the game to give you legendaries. And in this data, one of our members got a Bright Roar. Another got an Energy Monkey torso. I got an MPV from a fortune box once (but not while this study was going on).
There are some limitations to this study, though, as always:
It appears the game bases your rates off of the code but using a RNG call to your host machine. Therefore, if you happen to somehow be on a computer that has a broken RNG, you could get potentially higher rates or lower rates than these.
To help you understand the measure of significance: it's mostly agreed upon by Statisticians that 1% is the level of significance required for difference to be important, but only if you are doing things within the hard sciences. For example, if we were manufacturing gun barrels and machine A's differences in finished product width was a 1% spread versus machine B was a 0.1% spread, this would be cause for concern because we might accidentally manufacture barrels that are out of specifications and thus cause accuracy problems on machine A, but machine B would be better for our needs. For things that use probability and normal curves (human behavior experiments, things based in chance), the measure is 5%. So if there had been a 5% difference between study A and study B, we would conclude that 40 is not enough data points. However, what we see is 0.3%, which is less than both a strict hard-science 1% margin and a more soft-science psychology and probability 5%. Therefore our data is very reliable.
More data points will only make the rates more accurate, but should not (as we have demonstrated) change your conclusions.
There appears to be no difference in who was providing the screenshots in terms of player rank. There also seemed to be no difference in whether the fortune box was from the shop or from farming the campaigns. Thus I believe it is safe to conclude that these stats apply to all fortune boxes. But if you have a good reason to believe shop versus campaign is different, please let me know.
Keep in mind some times when you complete parts of the campaign, the fortune box animation is given, even though normally the resulting rewards are fixed. It is unclear yet if there are times when completing the campaign will result in a higher drop rate for special circumstances. However, we were not calculating fortune boxes for special circumstances (because that would take way too long).
The rates are PER ITEM IN THE BOX, not the entire box. This is because the items in the box are not always identical. You can sometimes get a box result (as we have shown in the pictures, which is available upon request) where you get one epic and one common. It just happens. Because fortune boxes seem to be "per item" chances, but seem to light up the light on the animation based on the highest rarity of item you receive (i.e. lights "legendary" when you get only one legendary, etc.), I thought this would be a more logical and simple way to run the numbers. Your mileage may vary.
By the way, as soon as I finished, my alt got this in a fortune box
A Little Intro
"Tell me something I don't know..." -the playerbase, probably
Well, you'll be disappointed for the first few paragraphs if you're expecting some complex data analysis, because I'm gonna state the obvious for the 9567th time... so let's begin...
For the past year or so, dual modules have been a staple in top rank builds. You may not see them directly, but you know your opponent has some equipped. One such dual module is the Quad Core Booster.
Ever faced an opponent with 350+ cooling AND 400+ regen at the same time, while having moderate to high secondary stat caps (550-900 energy cap/550-900 heat cap)? Chances are that player has a QCB (or two, or three!) equipped in their module slots. Do you resign on the spot when you know you already lost because of these secondary stats?
It wasn't always like this. In fact, it never should've come to this, but here we are.
The Probably Distant Past
Let's start the timeline around the release of the Backfire mechanic. People were skeptical of the mechanic's viability in the top ranks. They would ask, "Why sacrifice a lot of HP for a little increase in damage output?" This was certainly the case for the Broken Devourer, Drunk Lightning, and Sacrifice Cannon. Sure, they were lightweight but the meta weapons at the time were equally as efficient without the HP reduction. For a few months, backfire weapons remained largely unused. That was until... the dual mods were released.
The Recent Past
The first dual impactful dual module was the Overload Preventor. At a lightweight 25 kilograms, it outclassed its epic-divine counterpart, offering 1.64 energy regen/cooldown per kilogram by itself. That may not seem like much, but when you have 5 extra kilograms AND an extra space in your module slots (when comparing the OP to its epic-divine counterparts), there is an intrinsic value hidden between its numerical stats. An owner of two or more of these Overload Preventors can theoretically place another epic-divine module for free as opposed to sticking with the old epic-divine modules (thus living up to its abbreviation). "Okay, so my opponent gets a free 89/42 or 0/63. Big whoop. They will have lower secondary stat caps if they place 3 of those Overload Preventors, so I can still take them head on!"
Well, that's the neat part. You don't.
The More Recent Past
Here's where our real culprit comes in, the Quad Core Booster (QCB). At only 40 kilograms, it has an edge up on its epic-divine energy and heat module counterparts. Featuring +12/+5 energy/regen and +2/+5 heat/cooldown by stat comparison alone, it is easily noticeable how the synergy with two or three of these can measure up. If you sport 2 of these bad boys, that's 80 kilograms with secondary stats of +208/+98 energy/regen +184/+98 heat/cooldown. But, let's not forget its epic-divine equivalent, a measly +184/+88 energy/regen (same for heat/cooldown) for a combined weight of 100 kilograms. Essentially, you get 20 kilograms for free AND you get better stats AND most importantly, you have 2 extra module slots, and that's only with TWO QCBs. Three QCBs and you've theoretically freed up spare weight for a whole epic-divine module (or two), or better yet, an Overload Preventor!
The Present
Now we reach present day. Top ranks are filled with dual modules, and it's quite obvious to tell for anyone that uses a mech primarily focusing on secondary stat "damage". I did not want to bring up the other major module that has impacted basically every rank, since it is mostly irrelevant to the topics I will discuss later.
There are sales that feature the QCB and can be bought with tokens, though they are quite rare and expensive, but rightly so since they literally give the user a leg up on secondary stat sustainability.
Dead in the Water
So, let's talk about some dead archetypes in the top ranks. There are a few exceptions to the following, but unless you have swaths of legendary-divine items to construct these, these archetypes are basically dead because of dual modules (which includes our flexing friend, the QCB):
Drainers - mechs that focus on depleting the opponent's energy using energy weapons that deal a lot of energy damage (do not confuse it with electric damage). Traditional energy drainer weapons like Malice Beam, Hysteria, Ash Creator, Valiant Sniper (which is not dead), and Unstable Power Cell have a hard time draining opponents that have 350+ regen (duh), especially while worrying about their own secondary stats or HP. More extreme drain weapons like the EMP and its backfire version are really a tale of two cities. EMP rarely sees play in the top ranks due to its "low" drain (400ish when divined) and unfavorable range. Its backfire version, the OEMP, sees a lot of play due to its high drain (almost 500 when divined) and favorable range. OEMP synergizes well with the Malice Beam and Valiant Sniper to deliver 600+ energy damage to the opponent, which is adequate enough to continuously drain many top rank builds in subsequent turns. Any drainer mech without an OEMP/VS nor VS/VS combo is easily lost against mechs with QCBs.
Boilers - mechs that focus on providing high heat damage to the opponent. Traditional boiler weapons like the Corrupt Light, Savagery, and Crimson Rapture see no play at the top ranks (well, they never did before dual mod introductions, but now are 60 feet under figuratively). Sorrow, a legendary-divine weapon, has seen sharply decreased play after the introduction of dual mods and especially after the QCB release. The only remaining item keeping this archetype barely functioning is Swoop, but even then, that drone isn't used for pure boilers. Vandal Rage sees no play in the top ranks anymore. Its viability is outclassed by QCBs and the like. Even using 2 Vandal Rages can mean your opponent still has 300 cooling, which is more than enough to keep said opponent out of perpetual shutdown. Heat Bombs are the last remaining boiler weapons that still see some play in the top ranks (but none at all at the very top), but are easily outclassed by the QCB and OP.
Really, any element-specific (energy/heat damage) mech suffers horribly at the hand of the QCB. EMP mechs are topping out at rank 4 (previously topping out at rank 2 or 1 based on arena mode), while Sorrow builds top out around rank 3 (previously rank 1 regardless of arena mode).
The Only Way to Survive
Since secondary-stat-focused mechs are generally no longer part of the meta, damage-focused builds are the main archetype that remains. This is because the QCB and the OP are less of a direct influence on increasing HP, the stat affected by raw damage and backfire.
The only problem is that there is less strategy involved with dueling using just damage-focused builds. Players no longer have to think about their energy being drained/heat being topped by opponent combos, and now only have to worry about the big red numbers and the range.
Counter-Counters
Some Counters are a special type of archetype that are risky, meaning that facing the wrong mech that focuses on the secondary stat you're vulnerable against is an automatic loss for you, and otherwise, a win. You may have seen physical mechs that have 249 energy and 600+ heat while sporting energy-reliant weapons. That is one common example. Another is an energy mech that counters heat. There are quite a few of these archetypes around. They are more easily spotted by inspecting their secondary stats and resistances. The main reason these exist is because they are almost guaranteed a win against mechs that are more rounded to expect any type of opponent.
With the introduction of the QCB, rounded mechs can now synergize with other dual modules and free up space for Platings and Resistance Modules. This raises the overall power ceiling for rounded mechs by a large margin, which in turn decreases the win rate for risky counters.
You might ask, "Okay but risky counters can also get these dual modules for their mechs, right? So how exactly does it decrease their win rate if rounded mechs with QCBs face them?" Well, why do people run risky counters? The main answer is that they do not have enough items to justify using a fully dual-modded rounded mech. Also, it is disingenuous to use a dual module (like the QCB) on an element-specific counter mech.
Then, you might say, "Well, good riddance. Counters are cancerous anyways and show no real skill." Users that have to build counters are generally gated by lack of items, which also gates their ability to showcase their actual skill. The fact that rounded mechs with QCBs and OPs can defeat a full-on counter to that rounded mech is a testament that QCBs and OPs are ridiculously overpowered.
Synergy Synergy Synergy...
So I've talked about this whole synergy thing for a while now, but I've kept neglecting major points unrelated to module synergy. This section talks about what everyone finds out on their own once there's spare weight from when switching over from epic-divine modules to QCBs on a mech...
Synergy with resistance drainer weapons - earlier, I mentioned that using a QCB instead of two epic-divine [engine] modules grant the user 10 extra spare weight. Well, do you know what also is around 10 spare kilograms? Those legendary-divine backfire resistance drainer weapons. These 8-kilogram weapons are essential to being a top ranker, as everyone and their dogs will sport 100+ resistance in every damage type during a match. Note that if you use two or three QCBs, you can even substitute in another drainer that doesn't have to be legendary-divine!
Synergy with scopes - If you have multiple QCBs, you have spare weight for a Scope-8 weapon (Falcon, Flaming Scope, Lightning Scope) or even a more viable Scope-7 (Cockpit Piercer, Cockpit Electrocuter, Cockpit Burner) weapon.
Synergy with torsos - having multiple QCBs also allows you to equip heavier meta torsos. For example, many use the Nightmare torso for its recent all-around buff while also keeping itself lightweight (315 kilograms). However, if you currently have epic-divine modules and substitute them in for QCBs/OPs, you can now equip Platinum Vests (346 kilograms and they offer greater base resistance values) while keeping your module setup!
Possible Ways to Deal with the QCB
Nerf - nerf its weight (by increasing it) or nerf its secondary stat bonuses to a more equalized version of the epic-divine engine modules, albeit the QCB still needs to be better than the Energy Engine and Heat Engine combined.
Buff - buff the epic-divine modules to lessen the power advantage of the QCB.
Introduce - introduce inferior copies of the QCB as rare-divine or epic-divine rarities.
Delete - not gonna happen, but it's still a possibility. Just saying.
So what's next?
Alexander gave some lip service on Discord mentioning the inclusion of epic-divine versions of the OP and QCB (instead of doing nerfs), but those inclusions have yet to be seen.
For now, we will have to wait. Hopefully not forever.
Author's Note
I don't have any data to back any of these claims. It really is all common sense and my own personal observations. I can't be bothered with running 5000 matches to prove anything I typed here, so take all of this with a grain of salt. #cringe
This post can also be outdated in the event that one of the above ways that the QCB can be dealt with happens. Or, other things like buffing literally every other weapon to bring back viability to drainer/boiler (energy/heat) mechs.
Note that this isn't a rant topic. I've only stated my opinion but I'm not outright just taking the piss out on the QCB or any dual mod for that matter.
Lastly, it's literally 6 in the morning, so there may have been points I screwed up or things I forgot to cover. Just let me know. Don't even know why I created this topic in the first place... maybe I was just bored.
Since Gato have been creating new portals you only get boxes as rewards the 1st time you complete at each difficulty! Why can't you farm them like when Tactisoft created portals? Chance of lots of golds?
Another poor addition to Gatos rubbish attempt to make the game better but actually making it worse!
This item is a must-have if you want to have a chance in the top ranks.
Surprised nobody posted this yet. Great gambling offer, you save 61% compared to buying packs normally. Sadly this offer heavily relies on RNG so unless you're a new player that would benefit from any L-Ms I'd advise to save up your tokens for a more specific item deal.
i agree before double mods was a thing energy was meta but now you cant get use of them cause you need high energy+high heat but with the cost of low hp (you cant have the three of them cause high energy is what make energy mechs what they are) not to mention how heavy energy items are which is additonal reason why you cant get any use of double mods
and even the stats of heat are just better not to mention that we dont have some energy varaints of some weapons
now lets consider that we buffed the energy weapons and made it lighter
some of you would say that this means are no longer useless. will no it still the same
if we got the point of energy builds we would find that its about energy breaking but what about heat builds ? its about overheating
now here is the main reason why heat will always beat energy (from top ranks presective)
if energy mech made you out of energy it wont take a turn away from you. you still able to move,use spicals,use free energy weapons even you drone can attack if it doesnot use energy
while with heat if you manged to overheat your enemy he will lose his turn and if you manged to make him shutdown HIS DRONE CANT EVEN ATTACK NO MATTER WHAT
now lets consider that i somehow manged to get high energy cap and energy regenrate with high heat cap and high colodown with high hp (just consider this happend somehow) and i am running energy mech and i mange to energy break everyone in high ranks but i wont be in the top why ? because there is alot and i mean ALOT of free energy weapons that can counter energy builds
while there is only few weapons that can counter heat builds
now i know you would say "these weapons are premuim weapons only and require luck and alot of tokens" but i am talking from high rank (5-1) presective meaning that almost every player will have atleast 2 or 3 free energy preimum weapons and even the meta builds doesnot have energy variants cause as i mentioned before there is alot of weapons that can counter energy builds
and even if we compared between the meta weapons and its energy variants we will find that the heat type has better stats (the axe in the hugger mechs does 50 heat cap while the energy type does 40) not to mention the drone in the hugger mech that does a FREAKING 110 HEAT and i dont really think there is a way to make energy meta again other than making a new weapons
I love supermechs, I love madness combat. Why not put the 2 together? Supermechs in a Madness format. A maxed myth mech going into enemy outposts and ripping apart weaker mechs in a badass animated series? Hmmm...seems fun. To be completely honest I might start making a series for that.
Benja07 got a reaction from Deimos in - - - F l e x - T h r e a d - - -
Benja07 got a reaction from Shredder SM in Cursed SM Images thread
Benja07 got a reaction from JamAnime in Turkey is in extreme crisis right now.
