Base Chance Of Legendary Rate, 1st study

[SawzAll]

Some of you may have wondered if building Chance of Legendary in the base is worth it.  So me and my clan, N0ble Warriors, ran some chance of legendary in our bases to see what we came up with.  So far we've run 54 and are going to keep going until 100.

BLUF: Yes, worth it for legendaries, not worth it for premiums unless you're F2P.  Chance of legendary in the base gives more legendaries than the Feb 21 Deal, but fewer premiums.  This is the base chance of legendary data:

LONG STORY: Based on previous study with premium pack rates in February of this year, you get more legendaries.  However, you also have a reduced chance, per 54 boxes, of premiums.  Estimated error rate: 1% or less.  The premium pack study legendary rate was 17.92%, but the premium rate was 6.25%.  This means the chance of useful items in premium boxes is twice that of the February 21 deal.

It's still unknown if February 21 just happened to have higher rates, so if you base this on the previous premium pack study from March 14 of last year, you will get twice the legendaries than this previous study.  In that study, out of 40 premium packs, I got 14 premiums that are worth having.  Legendary rate was 34 out of 200, i.e. 17% (which resulted in a quote of 0.85 legendaries per premium pack).  So the rate of that was still higher, at 7%.

SUMMARY OF ALL 3 STUDIES: you can see how the premium item rate is higher with premium packs but lower in the base Chance of Legendary.  My advice: if you're F2P, build chance of legendary.  During this study, one of my clan mates got an OEMP and I got an LPV.  It's worth it if you don't have wads of cash to throw at SM.

[Monke King]

Could you study to show what is the best amount of legendaries to buy at a time?

[SawzAll]

5 hours ago, Ur Hacking said:

Could you study to show what is the best amount of legendaries to buy at a time?

Probably not

[Diablooder]

Hi SawzAll.

You can use my data for more accurate calculations. 

Legends made from December 6, 2021 to the present day.

The base is very useful.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Diablooder (see edit history)

[AftoKrator]

what's the separation between worth-having prems and non-worth-having prems?

[SawzAll]

On 3/16/2022 at 7:32 PM, Diablooder said:

Hi SawzAll.

You can use my data for more accurate calculations. 

Legends made from December 6, 2021 to the present day.

The base is very useful.

 

 

Thanks! But what I'm interested in is the progression of time also. Base rates have changed. I'll look at this when I get a chance!

On 3/17/2022 at 12:14 AM, AftoKrator said:

what's the separation between worth-having prems and non-worth-having prems?

Basically worth having is HPV, not Purifier, for example. Both premium, one is generally considered worth having. I can post the raw start (screenshots) in a little bit.

The raw data from the study, as requested:

[Tigergeezer]

Can you remind me how much gold it is per chance at crafting Legendary?  I'm now getting to that stage where the gold is building up more than I spend it, o I might upgrade a factory to max and have a go.

[SawzAll]

I can't remember how much, it's like 3K I think

[Diablooder]

 

[Yuki_20]

Question
How long should I produce a card?

What is the probability of winning Epic and Legend?

[Tigergeezer]

Looks as if the rates aren't so far off premium boxes - round about one in five items legendary, and probably one in four or one in five of those legendaries is worth having rather than myth food.  One for players with a well-established maxed base and the gold that provides, but worth doing rather just amassing more and more gold with very little to spend it on outside grinding the upgrades of items.  

[Atomic441]

8 hours ago, Diablooder said:

 

Going by this video you have approximately 1 in (5-6) card to be legendary(11/60 in this video). So the legendary chance percentage must lie in range of (16.67%-20%) as 11/60 = 18.33%. Writing from past experience, I would say it is most likely 1 in 5 cards.

On 3/16/2022 at 2:44 AM, SawzAll said:

Some of you may have wondered if building Chance of Legendary in the base is worth it.  So me and my clan, N0ble Warriors, ran some chance of legendary in our bases to see what we came up with.  So far we've run 54 and are going to keep going until 100.

BLUF: Yes, worth it for legendaries, not worth it for premiums unless you're F2P.  Chance of legendary in the base gives more legendaries than the Feb 21 Deal, but fewer premiums.  This is the base chance of legendary data:

LONG STORY: Based on previous study with premium pack rates in February of this year, you get more legendaries.  However, you also have a reduced chance, per 54 boxes, of premiums.  Estimated error rate: 1% or less.  The premium pack study legendary rate was 17.92%, but the premium rate was 6.25%.  This means the chance of useful items in premium boxes is twice that of the February 21 deal.

It's still unknown if February 21 just happened to have higher rates, so if you base this on the previous premium pack study from March 14 of last year, you will get twice the legendaries than this previous study.  In that study, out of 40 premium packs, I got 14 premiums that are worth having.  Legendary rate was 34 out of 200, i.e. 17% (which resulted in a quote of 0.85 legendaries per premium pack).  So the rate of that was still higher, at 7%.

SUMMARY OF ALL 3 STUDIES: you can see how the premium item rate is higher with premium packs but lower in the base Chance of Legendary.  My advice: if you're F2P, build chance of legendary.  During this study, one of my clan mates got an OEMP and I got an LPV.  It's worth it if you don't have wads of cash to throw at SM.

Woah now that's interesting thing to note, I didn't really think chance of premium would vary for both base and premium packs but again, they are not known as Premium packs for no reason. 

[SawzAll]

10 hours ago, Atomic441 said:

Going by this video you have approximately 1 in (5-6) card to be legendary(11/60 in this video). So the legendary chance percentage must lie in range of (16.67%-20%) as 11/60 = 18.33%. Writing from past experience, I would say it is most likely 1 in 5 cards.

Woah now that's interesting thing to note, I didn't really think chance of premium would vary for both base and premium packs but again, they are not known as Premium packs for no reason. 

They're definitely not the same.  And that 18.33% is less than 20%, hence I'd rather not tell people directly that "every" premium pack "will" contain a legendary.  I'd rather explain to people that, statistically, not getting a legendary is more likely in a premium pack.  But of course, this is several packs over time, so one needs to remember this before flipping out when you get a premium pack that's all epics 

[Atomic441]

4 hours ago, SawzAll said:

They're definitely not the same.  And that 18.33% is less than 20%, hence I'd rather not tell people directly that "every" premium pack "will" contain a legendary. 

Ye that's beauty of probability or (rng in this terms) you can never be certain about something unless it is 100% or 0%.