SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMPLETE: Premium Pack Rate

[SawzAll]

SHORT STORY: The premium pack to legendary rate appears to be 0.85 legendaries in every premium pack.

LONG STORY: I ran a research study which was configured as scientifically as possible.  From my own premium pack openings, and the contributions of only a few others, I came up with an estimate of what the rate is.  I used exactly 40 premium pack results to do this, which is the minimum data points to consider this study scientific.

Some caveats:

1. I could not use the flex thread for this because people tend to post only their good drops on that thread.
2. I tried to use others as little as possible to prevent a negativity bias.  This is because it's possible that people only posted good drops on the flex thread and bad drops on my own thread.  However, from what I can see, it appears people didn't do this, so I think the risk of a negativity bias is low.
3. It is possible that different days and different accounts have different drop rates.  I do not know for sure if this is true or untrue.  It's simply unknown.
4. Because the random numbers created by most computers are not completely random (unless you're talking FBI/CIA-level special equipment that's designed to create numbers that are more highly random), it's possible that this segment of 40 is not perfectly representative of what the rate truly is.  Therefore, this is only an estimate.  Keep in mind, others have given their opinion on this rate being about 1 to every 5 (i.e. one in every premium pack), which is close enough to consider these results as being accurate enough.

[Identical]

ok

 

[Turtle]

So drops are trash, as expected. I'm buying a Premium Pack tomorrow probably, so we will see what I get out of my purple traaash

[SawzAll]

14 minutes ago, Turtle said:

So drops are trash, as expected. I'm buying a Premium Pack tomorrow probably, so we will see what I get out of my purple traaash

Depends on your perspective.  If you're one of those people who would spend a million dollars on SM and not be happy with what you get, sure, it's always going to be trash.

Premium Packs, though, are not supposed to be (in my opinion) the way to get the really rare items.  Though if you look through my scientific thread, I got two double teleporters and some combined modules.  I also got an ash creator (posted elsewhere).  I'm satisfied with drop rates.

[Turtle]

32 minutes ago, SawzAll said:

SHORT STORY: The premium pack to legendary rate appears to be 0.85 legendaries in every premium pack.

 

Obviously you didn't look at what percentage of these are useful items, like yeah I can get 5 legendaries in one pack BUT the point is that if I get 5 Legendary that really can't be used well, what's the point? I'm not bashing you for not looking at the percentage of L-Ms or anything, but 0.85 is pretty low to begin with, then the rate of useful items is so much lower.

There's also that pity system that has to be taken into account that as far as I know, no one understands still. 

9 minutes ago, SawzAll said:

Premium Packs, though, are not supposed to be (in my opinion) the way to get the really rare items.

Then what is your method of getting items? Fortune Boxes? Because those have awful drop rates, trust me, I'm currently conducting a study on those. (By drop rate I mean the rate you even get the boxes) Special offers are super dependent on if you need the item or not, and most of the time people won't need the item.

My personal experience with Premium Packs and Boxes has been pretty pathetic. I believe I have 3 L-Ms, which isn't bad, but compared to the amount of packs and boxes that I have opened, I do think it's kind of lame.

9 minutes ago, SawzAll said:

If you're one of those people who would spend a million dollars on SM and not be happy with what you get, sure, it's always going to be trash.

Depends on what you get. I really don't need any of the normal E-Ms, as the rest I don't have really aren't necessary.

Take your current data, continue until you get 100 packs, then post that info. That will be the most accurate without going over the top.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Turtle
typo (see edit history)

[SawzAll]

10 minutes ago, Turtle said:

Obviously you didn't look at what percentage of these are useful items

Obviously you need to go back and read what I said (and I didn't bother reading the rest of your reply).  Why?  Because the point wasn't how many useful items you get.  And that's an unscientific construct that I'm not going to try to operationally define, "useful" or "not useful", etc.  I simply wanted to know the legendary rate.  That's it.

[Turtle]

15 minutes ago, Turtle said:

but 0.85 is pretty low to begin with, then the rate of useful items is so much lower.

Only if you had read the rest of it.

Also, if I remember correctly, there were these boxes called gold boxes in Legacy, they told you the drop rate of every rarity. I forget them now, but I think the drop rate for a mythical was 13%?

I would like to see our drop rates for Legendaries to be similar to that. Why? People seemed generally happier with rates like that, instead of hiding the current drop rates and leaving it to the community to hazard a guess the drop rates.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Turtle (see edit history)